Medieval weather prediction

In August 1861 the London-based newspaper The Times published world’s first “daily weather forecast.” term itself was created by enterprising meteorologist Robert FitzRoy, who wanted to distance his work from astrological “prognostications.” That story has led a widespread assumption that forecasting is an entirely modern phenomenon and in earlier periods only quackery or folklore-based signs were available. Observations of clouds, sunbeams, birds—like those seen this photo taken Salisbury, UK—were important elements classical forecasting. (Image courtesy Peter Lawrence.) PPT|High resolutionHowever, more recent research demonstrated astronomers astrologers medieval Islamic world drew widely on Greek, Indian, Persian, Roman knowledge create new science termed astrometeorology. Central universal belief planets their movements around Earth affected atmospheric conditions weather. It enthusiastically received Christian Latin Europe further developed Tycho Brahe, Johannes Kepler, other astronomers. drive produce reliable forecasts scientists believe astrometeorological could be accurate if they used precise observations records refine predictions for specific localities. Such kept across beginning 13th century correlated with astronomical data, which paved way data-driven produced FitzRoy.11. A. Lawrence-Mathers, Medieval Meteorology: Forecasting Weather Aristotle Almanac, Cambridge U. Press (2020).Islamicate astrometeorologists replace ancient practice observing short-term signs, such as clouds flight birds, predict They based action hypothesis caused mediated regional seasonal climate conditions. Improved calculations planetary orbits updated geographical meteorological information made possible compelling.The prospect acquiring forecasts, closely linked coming trends human health agricultural production, meteorology attractive too. Considerable pride shines through accounts questions now start answer. among them one meteorologists had failed figure out: How can vary so much year next when seasons are regular, repeating patterns Earth’s spherical shape its interactions Sun?Geoffrey Anjou, father King Henry II England, posed question 12th-century philosopher William Conches.22. Conches, A Dialogue Natural Philosophy (Dragmaticon Philosophiae), I. Ronca, M. Curr, trans., Notre Dame (1997). Drawing translations works attributed 8th-century astronomer M?sh?’all?h, writings 11th-century scholar Constantine African, contemporary discussions Adelard Bath, answered invoking Ptolemaic models Islamicate theories impacts local weather.The body scientific material being translated Arabic continued grow 12th centuries. During time, rising populations spurred increases urbanization, long-distance trade, wealth. With improved forecasting, rulers better able address practical societal concerns, military strategy food supply, both heavily Bankers traders willing pay valuable information. As result, astrometeorology develop during 14th 15th centuries reached ever-growing audiences 16th 17th fell favor 18th forecasters began view astrology scorn. worked Section:ChooseTop pageABSTRACTHow work... <<Rise expert foreca...The spread astrometeor...In time scientific...ReferencesCITING ARTICLES Hellenistic scientists, particularly Ptolemy Alexandria, major advances field. geometrical mathematical recorded over he carried out himself. His fundamental works—generally known period Almagest Tetrabiblos—provided means calculate positions guidelines interpret data. astrometeorology, each planet qualities influenced related phenomena Earth. Saturn—characterized distant, slow-moving, cold color—was associated cold, dry element earth. Mercury, small, fast-moving, usually close Venus Moon, warm, moist air. Exactly how disputed philosopher–scientists, but most accepted argument emitted imperceptible rays emitting Sun Moon significant bodies. Sun’s effect light heat long established, Moon’s influence ocean tides, bodily fluids, plant growth also recognized, at least educated. Astrometeorologists thought powerful even modulate influences weaker planets.33. Ptolemy, Tetrabiblos, F. E. Robbins, ed. Harvard (1940), bk. 1, chap. 8. step making forecast astrometeorologist all chosen date relation zodiac belt ecliptic—the apparent path heavens. Both envisaged circular, divided into 12 equal sectors shown 1. systematized portions heavens explained own characteristics, acted any passing sectors. Figure zodiac. This illustration de Sacrobosco’s De sphaera, printed 1488, shows circle various surrounding several latitudinal lines demarcate equator, tropics, polar regions. For scientist–philosophers, zones celestial divisions formed basis predictions. (Courtesy History Science Collections, University Oklahoma Libraries.) resolution noted angular relationships between determining mutual effects. Planets facing another negatively related; angle 45° problematic likely disturbance. However, 60° 120° would interact positively moderate When together, intensity effects increase depending natures placements involved. Forecasters needed account zone place current season. example, have set summer near equator winter Tropic Cancer. An apparently simple principles required make judgments outcomes factors play. depended achievements astronomers, built tables structures motions. turn mathematics improvement tools instruments. Astronomers tested revised Ptolemy’s instructions many treatises subject. Those specialist not provided guidance basic techniques data cosmological models.44. J. al-Khalili, House Wisdom: Saved Ancient Knowledge Gave Us Renaissance, Penguin (2011). result sophisticated, enticing, complex material. Rise forecasterSection:ChooseTop work...Rise foreca... <<The recognized 11th stimulated curiosity emulation rather than rejection. 2 highlights English astrolabe predicated one. Territorial conquests northern European forces Iberian peninsula al-Andalus librarians, scholars, translators available rulers. Thus born greatest scholarly translation cultural assimilation history, texts honorable effort. Scholars versions movements, example. well despite requiring users grapple foreign calendar dating system Hindu–Arabic numerals unfamiliar concepts underlying them. 2. Astrolabes, like 14th-century pictured here housed British Museum, models. provides map stars that’s calibrated latitude pointers named stars. (Photo Marie-Lan Nguyen, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.5.) Several philosopher–scientists became established authorities Europe, under Latinized names. One Abu Ma’Sh?r—known Albumasar—who spent career Baghdad, where wrote series ninth century. Another Messehalla; Baghdad golden age influential survey astronomy astrology, devoted 6 chapters Perhaps celebrated expertise, world, al-Kindi. Treatises extracted longer circulated Latin, remained popular Renaissance. offered clear explanation causes heat, drought, rain atmosphere Al-Kindi’s conceptual framework central idea treatises, driving force generated Aristotelian. concept four compose sublunar zone—earth, air, fire, water—and intrinsic connections primary hot, dry, moist.55. Grant, Science: Volume 2, Science, D. C. Lindberg, H. Shank, eds., (2013), p. 436. Astrologers believed fixed stars, including up constellations houses linked, special affinities individual qualities. determined nature terrestrial it moved heavens.66. Al-Kindi, G. Bos, Burnett, Scientific Middle Ages: Writings al-Kind?, Kegan Paul International (2000). al-Kindi’s method, typical relevant directions. Next, interpretation position strength Sun. model, particular power earth water, modulated given day relative Sun.66. assess interaction winds because joint whether air region hot cold. then considered five calculated affecting individually before incorporating groupings interactions. method confidently judge long, experience crucial successful prediction. Experts put trusted methods record benefit others. Especially application “opening doors.” do explain phrase, hints almost physical change atmosphere, driven combinations another. timing extent rainfall sufficiently frequently referred “books rain.” addition model “mansions Moon.” Credited Indian astrologers, 28 star groupings, occupied sector Each mansion characterized terms degree humidity, affect Moon. currently especially times per month. general monthly pattern drawing charts occasions. If moving wet mansion, outcome normally rain. Saturn modify considerably. Similarly, disruptive Mars storms, thunder, hail likely. diminish traveled orbit supplanted key point reached. astrometeor... <<In Interest after unaffected religious concerns. Theologians viewed differently personal clients. latter fraudulent best heretical dangerous worst clash teachings free will. But endorsement came great 13th-century theologian Thomas Aquinas. Summa Theologiae, earthly things cited St Augustine’s statement heavenly bodies cause Earth.77. T. Aquinas, 2nd ed., Fathers Dominican Province, trans. (1920). Because Aquinas drawn observation experience, theologians didn’t condemn demonic divinatory. students, Paris, authoritative, forms Speculum astronomiae (Mirror Astronomy). Albert Great praised value knowing variations changes things, Rather rejecting suspect, endorsed practice.88. P. Zambelli, “Speculum Astronomiae” Its Enigma: Astrology, Theology Albertus Magnus Contemporaries, Kluwer (1992), pp. 214, 230, 250. Technological developments helped disseminate science. Most notably, printing press, arrived century, long-term calendars, political annual almanacs. Almanacs grew privately commissioned renowned holders university chairs astronomy. Demand appeared soon Europe. early example astrologer Guido Bonatti, advised da Montefeltro, ruler Urbino, leaders Bonatti section book copied two later technology Rulers impressive investments universities no small part astronomy, meteorology. demand illustrated Georg Peurbach, studied Italy, France, Germany becoming professor Vienna. He Ladislaus V Hungary Bohemia Holy Emperor Frederick III. Forecasts private, department often provide public guidance. members patrons form prognostications, included Examples survive matter civic custom quickly spread. prognostications Monte Alciano, lived Pavia, seem been sought after. 1419, 1421, 1430, 1448 Empire France England. forecaster Joannes Vesalius—the great-grandfather famous Andreas Vesalius, physician author anatomy humani corporis fabrica (The Structure Human Body). Vesalius took Louvain 1429 adviser Duke Philip Good Burgundy. city council prognostication 1431, duly read invited audience end 1430. Louvain’s printer, Jan van Westfalen, arrived, promptly issued modeled Vesalius. Strikingly, Bologna employed professors compile almanac showed seven daily tabulate angles use prognostication.99. S. Vanden Broecke, Limits Influence: Pico, Louvain, Crisis Renaissance Brill (2003). Printed almanacs today continue follow same formula. Much time-consuming calculating alleviated contribution Regiomontanus, 3. Ephemerides, tables, print 1476. large volumes full table corrections apply adjusting coordinates powers sign aspect tabulated numerical form, lunar mansions table. name Müller, Ephemerides document trajectory objects. Along guidelines, advanced early-modern precursor (Portrait Austrian National Library, domain.) Regiomontanus rules producing addressing applied standard procedures appear conducted practice. identified occurrences influential. opposition Jupiter, occupying fire Aries water Scorpio, will generate clouds. toward include what called opening doors winds. traditionalists, appended ever-popular according revolution scientific... <<ReferencesCITING High Regiomontanus’s meant multiple rapidly appeared, pirated. acclaimed time: Cardinal Bessarion Matthias Corvinus him, Christopher Columbus dates storms.1010. Hayton, Centaurus 49, 185 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0498.2007.00080.x,1111. Zinner, Regiomontanus: Life Work, vol. Brown, Elsevier (1990), 120. Besides well-known espoused Brahe Kepler. growing acceptance heliocentric universe shake weather, body. Indeed, ongoing refinements practitioners reinforced astrometeorology’s culture. supporting trend locations mid From about 1340, working Merton College Oxford, prominent John Ashenden, interest Ashenden composed enormous summa dominated second section. having predicted Black Death 1348–49, 1368–74 emphasized conjunctions 1365 1369. suggested heavy floods followed three years drought and, consequently, crop failures shortages. Parallel Ashenden’s studies presented Reed, bishop Chichester 1369 1385 fellow school. treatise entitled Rules Master Merle. accompanied detailed 1337–44, mostly Lincolnshire Oxford. aim seems correlate actual notes establish proved predictions.1212. W. Merle, Merle’s MS: Considerationes temperiei pro 7 annis … Earliest Known Journal …, Symons, (1891). perhaps inspired pioneering Franciscan friar Roger Bacon, Oxford late Among collection notes. similar, separate project Bacon undertaken Eyno Würzburg, whose supported inclusion 1331 1355. Like group, placed emphasis predicting advance warning damaging weather; some pride, successfully snow volume uncertain origin belonging Dominicans Basel comparable 1399 1406. includes prediction sets observations. identify match April 1400 reported cloudy short sunny intervals strong west wind. note indicates away beneficent sign, disturbances.1313. L. Thorndike, Isis 32, 304 (1940); https://doi.org/10.1086/347697L. 57, 90 (1966); https://doi.org/10.1086/350082 intended improve sharpen challenge expansion saw production amateur carry publication ever-increasing number prognostications. Books nonexperts languages found theoretical works. striking long-lived vocabulary deployed. instance, Buckminster’s Almanacke Prognostication Year 1598 see “fair” “fresh” quarter 3 cloudy, become “raw” April. At 11 April, “clear” “fair.” page 1590 4. Almanac forecast. southern England July August. Reading, Special Collections.) Tycho’s evidence surprising amount space subject 1572 Cassiopeia. gave forecasts. acknowledged inaccuracy predictions, argued keeping strengthen practice.1414. nova stella, Hauniæ (1901). pupil, advice calendars Kepler prediction—in case, aspects. distinguished support hardly superstition ignorance. corrected astrometeorologists. recording strengthening legacy successor. article draws Meteorology funded UK Arts Humanities Research Council. I am grateful support. ReferencesSection:ChooseTop scientific...References <<CITING ARTICLES1. (2020). Google Scholar2. Scholar3. ScholarCrossref4. Scholar5. ScholarCrossref6. Scholar7. Scholar8. ScholarCrossref9. 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